Future Forecast: 2010

Original publication date: March 2010

Future Forecast for 2010: The following predictions are based on trends in government.

Note: The forecast published on March 17, of 2009 has become fully active and continues in total for 2010.

Conformity to the will of a central government was considered a danger to the foundation of freedom and the survival of the nation. For that very reason, the founders limited the powers of the federal government, or so they thought.

Since sympathizers supporting the King of England helped load furniture of the vanquished on ships in Boston harbor, there has been continual movement away from the intent of the founders, largely influenced by European sympathizers.

A central banking system, although not provided for by the constitution, was created under an “elastic” interpretation of federal powers. Essentially, the constitution could be stretched in any direction deemed necessary to tax citizens to fund activities, and activities could be added as deemed necessary. Initial funding for the central bank was achieved through the sale of shares purchased mostly by states of the Old World. (See Alexander Hamilton)

Free education for all citizens became a central issue. “Democracy cannot succeed without an electorate competent to inform itself.” The concern was that “brats” might grow up, fall under the spell of false prophets, and vote away their property rights. Less than fifty years after ratification of the constitution, June 21, 1788, the public system of education began to emulate the European model. (See Horace Mann)

America has replaced the British Empire as the protector of the land where the sun never sets, and become the customer of the protected. Since World War II, this outcome has allowed Europeans to increase their commercial enterprises and investments while reducing their own defense efforts by relying on American presence. America has become the Beat Cop of the World at the expense of the lower and middle class.

Government, business, industry and education have advanced and improved the quality of life in America. However, they have recently returned to their status as eighteenth century problems once again. Deficits caused by unbalanced trade, ineffective education, squabbling government and fiscal incompetence are not a new phenomenon.

What are the future consequences?

1.     Political Implosion: At best, the efforts of Washington can be summed up as designing a roadmap to nowhere. By all appearances and certainly outcomes, the combined accomplishments of the house and senate will leave the country as a neutered house pet.

The rugged individualism that created America is considered offensive to the wimps, pimps, potheads, Hollywood pornographers, child molesters, illegal aliens, and socialist apologists that the Washington elected seek to keep them in office.

The train is leaving the station, the boat is leaving the pier and many in Washington will be on their way home. Have heart, the citizens will keep the soup kitchen open for you.

2.     Wall Street and Washington Reprisals – Hollywood Fiction Movie: Hollywood and international playwrights may create fictional movies about a malicious software program installed in the NYSE. The program might track trading patterns of brokerages selling naked short stocks. Add some intrigue that the program blocks covering the naked shorts and the brokerage collapses bringing down Wall Street and the banking system.

Spice it all up with some hookers, drugs, and billions of dollars in forged treasury bills laundered through international banks to purchase legitimate stocks. There are likely to be many inputs from editorial writers . . . could be a hit movie in the international market . . . could even become a squeal or international TV series.

The cast of characters may consist of lawyers internal to government agencies with the responsibility of overseeing the market, but instead, using intelligence reports to manipulate it for personal gain. Add hacking pools sponsored by international governments accessing friend and foe databases through hardware and software back doors originally designed for monitoring international correspondence by citizens.

3.     Law Enforcement and Justice: After decades of social activism frustrating law enforcement and the courts by a growing pool of lawyers seeking riches, it will become too expensive to uphold the law and administer justice. This will result in an ever-increasing release program for inmates.

To cover deficit spending, government will resort to adding exorbitant fines and fees that do not provide any service or value to the daily life of citizens. Children will continue under threat of violation by deviants whose rights are of more concern than those of children.

4.     Citizen and Employee Rights: The health of citizens is of paramount importance as a resource to the viability of the country. Preventive care beginning at an early age will enhance health and reduce the cost of future care. Effective education will be recognized as a necessity . . . the operative word being effective.

Health care and educational facilities will be matched to the need of programs. Gold-plated and unused facilities will be eliminated and campus recreational facilities will be unlocked for citizen use after school hours. These facilities will be monitored by full-time law enforcement where necessary.

5.     International Trade Reversal: The need to balance global trade will be acknowledged as an effective way to establish full employment, communication and trust between countries and communities. Unbalanced trade deprives one community of wealth while providing excessive wealth to another.

The current unbalanced trade relationship creates hostility and conflict. Given all costs, many imported products are more expensive than American manufactured products. When employees do not earn health benefits from their work, the government is the last resort. This is much more expensive.

6.     Western Manufacturing Growth: The importance of maintaining AMERICAN manufacturing capability across all possible product lines where the resources and technologies are available will be recognized. Where these product lines have been off-shored, they will return and be produced domestically as well. These activities will be financially viable under a balanced trade approach.

Manufacturing creates the need for four additional jobs outside the factory, whereas service activities create the need for only two additional jobs. It is in the interest to national security of a nation that support structures of transportation and industrial marketing accompany this effort. This is the only approach that will result in a balanced budget in the future. The prospect of increasing exports to balance trade is unreasonable.

7.     Commodity Redirection: Raw materials required for manufacturing will be redirected to new AMERICAN factories. This change will help to offset the current attempt to lock-out AMERICA from mineral resources, support the national security initiative, and provide employment in the logistics and transportation areas.

8.     Commerce Department Mission Change: Traditionally, the commerce department has supported industry and facilitated export and import efforts. The department mission will be updated to include maintaining a balance between import and export values.

This area of imbalance has cost AMERICA over twenty-five trillion dollars in GDP and twelve trillion dollars of tax revenues in the past fifteen years. Had a balance been maintained in this area, there would be no unemployment, tax revenue shortfall or budget deficits today.

9.     Academic Programs Repurposed: Business and law education programs will need to change their focus from creating and managing independent business activities, to include an understanding of how a nation creates and maintains wealth thorough a nation centered initiative. The current approach does not include an effective method of ensuring a balance between the value of imports and exports, maintaining balanced trade or supporting national security capability.

10.    Military and Merchant Marines Redeployed: America’s military are currently stationed in many countries that may have the ability to provide for their own defense. This approach does provide a basis for building-up a deployed force quickly. However, these deployed support forces deplete the resulting number of combatant forces available.

Current congressional logic regarding force manning is debatable. By all appearances, congress seems to believe money in the form of pay solves all problems. The constant redeployment of forces to combat zones is not desirable or reasonable. A much larger force is necessary if AMERICA continues efforts in the current mode.

America has virtually no merchant marine force, instead, relying on foreign transport. This may seem to be a cost savings, however, is not in the interest of national security. There are always studies that support disintermediation in logistics channels based on cost. These studies do not guarantee the capability when needed in a national emergency.

Curious Observation: How AMERICA, with an almost daily financial and logistics reporting system, could allow the accumulation of trade deficits over a period of years, without action; may well be a case study for decades  to come.

The comment “We didn’t see it coming” may become a mystery of the ages equal to the building of the Pyramids of Egypt.

You be the judge.

Posted in Future Forecasts.