Future Forecast: 2022-2028

Background: The 2022-2028 forecast, as with all writings in the online log are the result of observations of information provided to the public via the news media, government, and public organizations. Observations are not intended to provide opinions. Further information on the research process can be found by selecting the “research category” in the online log.

References provide a view of changing dynamics over decades and centuries. Current decision-makers rely on available information and must apply their knowledge (experience) and wisdom to possible cause and effect of their actions. Decisions made at one point in time may cause unintended consequences decades later.

Not included in the following is the law and order, and outstanding security issues occurring at this time. A new posting on the subjects will be forthcoming.

Consult the Intel Rag Online Log posting Future Forecast Background for 2022-2028, and the IRag Blog posting War and Terrorism for detailed information regarding items selected for listing below. References contain significant additional information not listed here. Links open a new page.

See Notes at the end of the posting for additional insight.

Currently there are no efforts underway to correct the following issues. They are expected to continue in the future.

  • Prosecutors are failing to protect the community by operating the legal system as a turnstile at a train station . . . in and out to commit more criminal acts at will.
  • Throwing the election system out the window saying it is prejudice when it requires personal identification.
  • Opening the border to allow free movement of drugs which are destroying communities and leading to higher levels of crime.
  • Turning the United States into a market satellite of Communist China.
  • Economic science failure. The assumption that least cost results in the best decision is an error in logic. Does not take into consideration the cost of lost jobs, factories, degraded infrastructure and more, as a result of unbalanced trade.
  • The accumulated trade deficit from imports for the period of 1992-2021 exceeds $17 trillion dollars.
  • Funding for war and terrorism activities pursued by the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and Islamic States are primarily acquired by trade deficits, illegal activities in drugs, human trafficking and slave labor. Theft of trade secrets of the U.S. via digital communications and within domestic industry and academic organizations.
  • Budget outlays exceed tax and fee revenues by $2 trillion a year and are increasing at an increasing rate.
  • The Department of Defense indicates the U.S. Military may be degraded and undermanned and cannot effectively support a worldwide posture.
  • The education system does not provide well educated graduates. The U.S. is rated in (30th) place worldwide in math, science, and the social sciences. China ranks in first (1st) place.
  • Socialist approach to Critical Race Theory (CRT) in schools is counter to equality.
  • Parents concerns that the U.S. government controls parents and students is a reversion to a totalitarian state where children belong to the state.
  • U.S. education, research, and technology organizations depend on graduates from self-declared enemy countries above. Reason for this appears to be the structure of education systems outside the U.S. with a focus on math and science.
  • On average U.S. schools and colleges are not as intensive, and overall educators are not as qualified. Educators in many competitive countries continually upgrade competencies by advancing to higher levels of instruction throughout their careers.
  • U.S. corporations depend on graduates from foreign adversaries for senior management positions.
  • Employment in manufacturing, nondurable and durable goods has diminished significantly since 1979.
  • U.S. Merchant Fleet has dropped from 16.9% of the World Fleet to .4% since 1965.

Notes:

(1). Decades of auditing aerospace organizations and systems, and university programs and facilities, the attitude of superiority and denial are frequently impingements to achieving excellent results or correcting issues.

(2). Frequently external reviews of teacher performance, programs and procedures identify issues for correction. Satisfactory correction is frequently impeded by faculty and unions.

Summary: War and Terrorism

Postings within this category indicate that war and terrorism are a combined set of activities.

War is generally considered to be an armed conflict between at least two independent nations. However, the larger the conflict, the more nations that may become involved.

Terrorism is generally considered to be actions taken to intimidate or harm citizens of one nation by another nation. This may also include activities within a nation such as organized riots, looting, burning, robbery and more.

The first stage of conflict appears to be terrorism. When terrorism does not produce the desired results, war may follow.

Contents of postings speak for themselves and will not be repeated here.

Key Points:

  1. Funding for war and terrorism activities pursued by the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and Islamic States are primarily acquired by trade deficits of the free world.
  2. The U.S. alone has accumulated a $17 trillion trade deficit for the period of 1992-2021.
  3. Significant illegal activities in drugs, human trafficking and slave labor by countries identified in (1) above, also fund war and terrorism.
  4. The free world is funding the economies, building cities, and developing militaries of self-proclaimed enemies.
  5. Some members of congress, the administration, and international business, appear to have created this situation for personal profit, possibly through the misuse or misdirection of federal funds, leaving the citizens with a massive debt.
  6. The loss of life is in the millions, and government by failure to stop or prevent indirect funding of illegal activities is essentially aiding them and may be considered complicit in the crimes.
  7. In many respects, the U.S. is dependent on defensive material support from organizations listed in (1) above. This is a result of offshoring manufacturing to the least cost market. Doing so significantly diminishes the ability to be self-sustaining in military efforts.
  8. The education system does not provide well educated graduates. As a result, the U.S. is rated in the middle of the pack at around thirtieth (30th) place worldwide in math, science, and the social sciences. China ranks in first (1st) place.
  9. U.S. education, research, and technology organizations depend on graduates from countries listed in number one (1) above. Reason for this appears to be the structure of education systems outside the U.S. with a focus on math and science.
  10. Theft of trade secrets by members of (1) above occurs externally to the U.S. via digital communications and within domestic industry and academic organizations.
  11. On average U.S. schools and colleges are not as intensive, and overall educators are not as qualified. Educators in many competitive countries continually upgrade competencies by advancing to higher levels of instruction throughout their careers.
  12. Therefore, many of U.S. corporations depend on graduates from foreign adversaries to lead research and development activities and advance to senior management positions.

Refer to the following “intelrag postings” which demonstrate the effects of Key Points identified above:

  • International Cyber Security: Worldwide roadmap of an interconnected system of universities specializing in computer science and cyber security developed in India, sponsored by UNESCO and funded by the USSR.
  • Status of the U.S. Economy: Data indicate much of the $30+ trillion national debt is, in fact, an outcome of taking a global perspective, where China and other countries have not reciprocated. A case could be made this is also funding Chinese and Russian aggression.
  • SOTU Backdrop Part VIII – Education: Education in the future must be in the real-world so students can experience at the pace of change, not locked in a classroom environment where learning is static. Students must learn advanced concepts earlier.

Read the postings in the War and Terrorism category for an in-depth understanding.

Postings are subject to update.

End of Posting

War and Terrorism

The United States is a Democracy with private ownership or control of property. Nations which are current aggressors towards the U.S. and democratic governments typically practice a form of Socialism, Communism, and Islam, which establish public (state) ownership or control of property.

Economics of War:

World War I, $334 billion was spent fighting the enemy. World War II, $4.1 trillion was spent. The disparity in spending is partially explained by the fact that U.S. was actively engaged in fighting during the final 4 years of WW II.

War on Terrorism, $1.5 to $1.7 trillion was spent between 2001 and 2014, but the War on Terrorism is stretched out over a much longer period of time.

Nearly 20 years after the United States invasion of Afghanistan, the cost of global war on terror stands at $8 trillion.

The number of men and women deployed to fight these wars during the same three periods was 4.7M, 12.2M, and 2.5M, respectively.

World War I: Began on 28 July 1914 and ended on 11 November 1918. Referred to by contemporaries as the “Great War”, its belligerents included much of Europe, the Russian Empire, the United States, and the Ottoman Empire, with fighting also expanding into the Middle EastAfrica, and parts of Asia. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million people were killed in combat, while over 5 million civilians died from military occupation, bombardment, hunger, and disease.

World War II: A global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. It involved the vast majority of the world’s countries—including all of the great powers—forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis powers. In a total war directly involving more than 100 million personnel from more than 30 countries, the major participants threw their entire economic, industrial, and scientific capabilities behind the war effort, blurring the distinction between civilian and military resources.

Korean War: Fought between North Korea and South Korea from 1950 to 1953. The war began on 25 June 1950 when North Korea invaded South Korea following clashes along the border and rebellions in South Korea. North Korea was supported by China and the Soviet Union while South Korea was supported by the United Nations, principally the United States. The fighting ended with an armistice on 27 July 1953.

Vietnam War: A conflict in VietnamLaos, and Cambodia from 1 November 1955 to the fall of Saigon on 30 April 1975. It was the second of the Indochina Wars and was officially fought between North Vietnam and South Vietnam. North Vietnam was supported by the Soviet UnionChina, and other communist allies. South Vietnam was supported by the United States and other anti-communist allies. The war is widely considered to be a Cold War-era proxy war. It lasted almost 20 years, with direct U.S. involvement ending in 1973.

Iraq War: A protracted armed conflict in Iraq from 2003 to 2011 that began with the invasion of Iraq by the United States–led coalition which overthrew the Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein. The conflict continued for much of the next decade as an insurgency emerged to oppose the coalition forces and the post-invasion Iraqi government. US troops were officially withdrawn in 2011. The United States became re-involved in 2014 at the head of a new coalition, and the insurgency and many dimensions of the armed conflict continue today. The invasion occurred as part of the George W. Bush administration‘s War on Terror following the September 11 attacks.

Afghanistan War: Armed conflict in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021. It began when an international military coalition led by the United States launched an invasion of Afghanistan, subsequently toppling the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate and establishing the internationally recognized Islamic Republic three years later. The 20-year-long conflict ultimately ended with the 2021 Taliban offensive

Current Situation:

Big Question: In 2000, Congress made the fateful decision to extend “permanent normal trade relations,” or PNTR, to China. With PNTR in hand, the floodgates of investment were opened, and U.S. multinationals worked hand in glove with Beijing to create new China-centric supply chains. This resulted in a swift decline of U.S. manufacturing employment.

Why did congress create a relationship with the PRC and U.S.S.R. given their aggressive behavior against the U.S.? Maybe greed and other goodies? Maybe for stock advantages or, maybe some members of congress, consultants and media propagandists, are Unregistered Foreign Agents?

The alarm clock should have gone off when congress established Most Favored Nation (MFN) for China. However, congress slept. Actually, it would be unfair to lay current failures at the foot of congress alone. Business and academic sectors are equally responsible.

Historically, war has usually been considered armed conflict between at least two separate nations. At this time in history, this conflict has taken on additional forms for power and profit including:

Who knows what greed and evil lurks in the hearts of men?

Propaganda agents are paid for and profit by misrepresenting issues in the media. Over time, citizens are programmed by the propaganda and become dysfunctional and unable to think clearly. Call it misdirection.

The question that needs to be answered, “is it too late” to wake up?

This series of posts may provoke emotional reactions from readers. It is similar to the metaphor of the boiling frog. Government leads business and education communities into the pot of boiling water. The difference is the frog reacts by jumping out before being cooked. Are politicians, business and education too greedy to realize they are going to be cooked.

Horizon signal events are periods of time that indicate the influence and activities confronting democracy. During the signal events, actions were taken by the U.S. Congress to create open access to U.S. markets.

World Trade Organization: Agreements contain special provisions for developing countries, including longer time periods to implement commitments. Developing countries including China comprise a majority of the WTO membership.

China and the WTO: Search by the “Country Tab” indicates China is involved in the significant number of trade disputes (3996). Whereas most other countries involved in trade disputes may average less than (100). The inability of the U.S. to maintain a balance in foreign trade has accumulated a negative balance of $17 trillion for the period from 1992-2020.

This imbalance has provided the funding necessary for adversaries of the U.S. to monopolize shipping, mineral resources, manufacturing, digital communications and financing worldwide. This advantage may indirectly fund terrorism activities, compromise international security and provide for international criminal activity.

Terror: A state or feeling of overwhelming fear by a nation or its citizens. Currently, invasion of the Ukraine by Russia is causing fear as citizens flee to safety in neighboring countries. Host countries sense fear in anticipation of Russia’s future ventures and destruction.

Terrorists: Advocates or practitioners of terrorism as a means of coercion. An individual, group leader, head of state and their accomplices.

Terrorism: China shares in the invasion of the Ukraine by supporting the action of Russia. Why does China support the current terror activities by Russia? At the time of the Olympics, Russia signed an agreement to provide grain to China. Russia needed more land to uphold the agreement and the Ukraine is a supplier of 20% of the world consumption of grain.

Vision of Humanity: Provides more information on the subject of the Russia, China relationship. Included on the website is an Overall Global Peace Index Score which lists countries by the level of peacefulness. Some of the least peaceful countries are Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, Russia, Iraq, Ukraine, North Korea and others. None of the least peaceful countries are democratic and many of their leaders are considered terrorists. Surprisingly, China is ranked 89th out of 160, in the middle of the pack.

State Sponsors of Terrorism: Lists only Cuba, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), Iran, and Syria. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) is not listed despite the issues identified above.

United Nations: Office of Counter-Terrorism Tasks:

Items have been simplified for reading. Refer to the link above.

  • Enhance Global Counter-Terrorism Coordination.
  • Strengthen counter-terrorism capacity.
  • Improve visibility of efforts.
  • Ensure priority across the United Nations.
  • Ensure preventing violent extremism is rooted in Strategy.

Financing terrorism and criminal activity are generally considered separate issues. The attack on 9/11 and possibly COVID-19 are considered acts of terrorism for political and financial influence. The illegal importation of narcotics, money laundering, human trafficking and organ harvesting are examples of criminal acts for profit. These activities may become intertwined. Terrorist organizations may use criminal organizations to fund their terrorist activities.

Groups conducting terrorist activities, and criminal organizations may have separate legal business entities that are listed on the stock exchanges. Investors may be indirectly funding organizations involved in terrorism or criminal activities. In some instances, these organizations may also receive government grants, as with research at the Wuhan laboratory for the COVID-19 issue.

Accumulated Costs: The cost items addressed above total $31,634,000,000,000. That is 31 trillion, 634 billion dollars spent, projected to be spent or lost. This amount is equal to the total U.S. trade deficit.

Personnel Involved: Total number of military and civilian personnel involved in above wars 19,605,080. That is 19 million, 605 thousand, and 080.

Personnel Losses: The estimated number of military and other personnel died, wounded or missing 205,080.

Signal events will be published as independent posts which are complex and interrelated.

Horizon of Signal Events:

  • War and Terrorism.
  • Far East and European Terrorism.
  • International Terrorism.
  • Financing War and Terrorism.
  • Students Become Terrorists.

This post is the foundation for the war category. Content and links will be modified when information changes.

Target Prediction:

Institute for The Study of War: The West should pay close attention to the Chinese military’s preparations for urban combat, as these efforts will have profound effects on China’s policy toward Taiwan and elsewhere.

The editors forecast based on averages of all service levels over major wars indicates the military force to sustain free nations under attack during WWIII is as follows:

  • Minimum of 600 combatant ships and support facilities.
  • Minimum of 4,000 combatant and transport aviation assets and support facilities.
  • Minimum of 6,000,000 military and civilian support personnel.
  • Time to target is three years based on the current state of worldwide conflict.

The U.S. has repeated a catastrophic failure. Prior to every war, optimistic thinking has created situations wherein aggression is much more costly to standup to. The myth that, in relation to current events, Socialism, Shintoism, Nazism, Communism, and Islam countries will not attack is unreasonable. This is currently the case. Congress has created a situation where the U.S. is not self-stainable in warfare.

U.S. Strategy: Failure to prepare for two wars—one in the Indo-Pacific and one in Europe—“sends the exact wrong message” to America’s adversaries, Failure to prepare for two wars may actually “invite” China and Russia to take advantage of a conflict in the other’s sphere of influence. Research and development-heavy fiscal 2022 budget.

Frequently, it is stated that as a result of today’s complex weapons systems, the need for a significant military with accompanying noncombatant civilian support is unnecessary. Current aggression by waring nations and their accompanying criminal activity disproves that thought. Unless of course, the intent is to go nuclear, which is where the world is headed. Without conventional deterrence, that is the result.

Treasury Secretary wrong about inflation. The liberal attitude of the administration took advantage of the opportunity to make money by selling-out to China . . . money in the pocket and false greatness of the mind. The financial market in stocks and banking which was the cause the collapse in 1929 has run amuck again. Some will laugh and point to their holy bibles of finance and economics which never see it coming!

Economics is a failed science. It does not consider strength of the nation, and takes advantage of every opportunity, even with the enemy, to make a buck. New Rules: Economics For Politicians explains.

Posts represent opinions of the editor based solely on available public information.

Notes:

  • Posts are designed to be quick reads and represents the third cut on subjects.
  • Textual material consists of modified entries from the linked-to resources.
  • Postings are an index of detailed information accessed by selecting included links.
  • Organizations linked-to maintain ownership and are responsible for accuracy.
  • Posts are based on Horizon / Environmental Scanning futurist research methods.

End of Posting

Far East and European Terrorism

World history passed through several stages of development before arriving at this point in time. Over several centuries, geographical areas with homogeneous populations, languages and cultures grew into independent nations.

Trade between nations became a way of acquiring farming and manufactured products between nations. As time passed, the edge (boundaries) between homogeneous nations languages and cultures dissolved allowing the cultures of independent nations to combine.

Throughout history, timelines are marked by historical events, conflicts in the form of warfare, and currently terrorism. The sphere of influence within and between nations is displayed by leadership of one nation attempting to control, by military or economic methods, their internal political and trade partners.

Differences between political systems and access to material resources is the primary cause of conflict between nations. Each political system has their own method of citizen participation in governance and ownership of property. The U.S. is a Democracy while the primary aggressors to the United States today are the leadership of countries with Communist, Socialist, and Islamic political systems.

Terrorism, specifically in the Far East and Europe are the focus of this posting. However, additional areas of the world are also mentioned.

Terrorism Links: Limited index of available information:

  • Our World in Data: Defines terrorism as the unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims. The reference is a significant worldwide compendium of information, charts and tables.
  • Foreign Policy Research Institute: Washington is looking to move-on from the Global War on Terrorism and put an end to the “9/11 era,” as the pendulum swings from a focus on non-state actors back to nation states. But, the enemy always gets a vote, and the psychological impact of terrorism will keep it as a front-burner issue for the foreseeable future, no matter which ideologies ebb and flow next year. Terrorism has become the form of war today.
  • statista: Terrorism in Europe with statistics and facts. Attacks by country.
  • Wikipedia: Terrorism in Europe nationalist and separatist movements. Terrorism by country and region.
  • The Diplomat: Terrorism in Asia before and since 9/11. Asian nations have been grappling with insurgencies and terrorism challenges. The Diplomat takes a look at 8 of them.
  • Significant territorial conflict has existed between cultures within the Philippine nation for decades. Essentially, it is a conflict where Islamic groups have continually transgressed on a Christian nation. This appears to be a model of current and growing conflicts worldwide.

Counter-Terrorism Links: Limited index of available information:

  • United Nations: Office of Counter-Terrorism  provides UN Member States with the necessary policy support and shares in-depth knowledge of the global strategy and wherever necessary to expedite delivery of technical assistance.
  • UN Office on Drugs and Crime: Provides relevant and valuable resources for lecturers teaching courses on counter-terrorism in universities and academic institutions across the world.
  • U.S. Department of State: Threats posed by organizations continue to evolve, the Department of State works to build global consensus to degrade and defeat these adversaries.
  • FBI: Top investigative authority for intelligence capabilities to neutralize domestic extremists and help dismantle terrorist networks worldwide.

Notes:

  • Posts are designed to be quick reads and represent the initial cuts on subjects.
  • Textual material consists of modified entries from the linked-to resources.
  • Postings are an index of detailed information accessed by selecting included links.
  • Organizations linked-to maintain ownership and are responsible for accuracy.
  • Posts are based on Horizon / Environmental Scanning futurist research methods.

End of Posting

International Terrorism

FBI: The FBI’s Number one priority is protecting the U.S. from terrorist attack and categorizes issues as international or domestic.

International terrorism: Violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups who are inspired by, or associated with, designated foreign terrorist organizations or nations (state-sponsored).

International Terrorism: Joint address by MI5 and FBI Director’s warn of the growing threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to UK and US interests. The CCP is covertly applying pressure across the globe. Rather than lone actors, a coordinated campaign on a grand scale. Rather than proceeding at a lightning pace, the CCP has a strategic contest across decades. Rather than the actions of volatile individuals, there is planned, professional activity.

This plan may include planting agents (one ) – (two) within government organizations, compromising public and private citizens with payoffs and other unmentionable activities, and theft of intellectual property etc.

Domestic terrorism: Violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups to further ideological goals stemming from domestic influences, such as those of a political, religious, social, racial, or environmental nature.

Domestic Terrorist Attacks: Related incidents in the United States since the 1800’s. In addition to the terrorist attacks listed, it can also be searched as follows:

Lone Offender Terrorism: The FBI’s National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime and Behavioral Analysis Unit (BAU) describes the results of investigative research and media accounts since 1972. Data indicate that most likely offenders are between the ages of 18-44.

The Internet and social media: International and domestic violent extremists have developed an extensive presence on the Internet through messaging platforms and online images, videos, and publications. These facilitate the groups’ ability to radicalize and recruit individuals who are receptive to extremist messaging.

Social media has also allowed both international and domestic terrorists to gain unprecedented, virtual access to people living in the United States in an effort to enable homeland attacks.

The Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS), in particular, encourages sympathizers to carry out simple attacks wherever they are located—or to travel to ISIS-held territory in Iraq and Syria and join its ranks as foreign fighters. This message has resonated with supporters in the United States and abroad.

CIA: The world’s premier foreign intelligence agency, focusing on international terrorism. The CIA collects and analyzes foreign intelligence and conducts covert actions. U.S. policymakers, including the President of the United States, make policy decisions informed by the information provided by the CIA.

Separation of terrorism into international or domestic is a significant issue. At first reading it may seem that there is an ideological difference. However, it is most likely that this separation in designations is a result of the resources assigned to each agency. 

NSA: The National Security Agency leverages advantages in technology and cybersecurity to strengthen the nations defense and secure national security systems. The NSA Cybersecurity Collaboration Center prevents and eradicates threats to U.S. national security systems with a focus on the Defense Industrial Base and the improvement of our weapons’ security and partners with allies, private industry, academics, and researchers to strengthen awareness and collaboration to advance the state of cybersecurity.

Interactive Constitution: Far-out at this point in time. However, the question occasionally arises in comments. The question is, “are any of the U.S. trading partners considered enemies of the U.S.?” If they commit terrorist activities or war against the U.S., “are investors supporting terrorist organizations or governments guilty of treason?” If so, does the Treason Clause of the Constitution apply to investors, and is the slope slippery enough to get there if they take treason actions or make war against the U.S.? This is one for the legal experts to ruminate over!

9-11 Commission Report: The table lists the content by chapter and provides download links and HTML links for viewing online. The first three chapters are linked below. Interested researchers can view or print online.

Chapter 1: “We Have Some Planes” is the background setting for the attack on World Trade Center Complex in New York City. The report is a significant read.

Chapter 2: “The Foundation of the New Terrorism” continues and provides the background setting for international terrorism.

Chapter 3: “Counterterrorism Evolves” may be of significant interest as it identifies a progressive listing of attacks prior to and including the 911. Chapter 3 narrative indicates indecision and disagreement over which agency is responsible for what, and within each agency which office is responsible. This disagreement seems to have been resolved.

National Library of Medicine: Who is to blame for COVID-19? Well, blame is unknown, however the global effects are somewhat known. Occurrences of pathogens appear to be in the future.

The Last- And Only Foreign Scientist in the Wuhan Lab Speaks Out. It appears an insider agrees with the indefinite results of pursuit for answers. Whatever the cause, it is international terrorism. World Health Organization data on COVID-19.

List of wars: 2003-present: Reflects the definition of war in the foundation post on WWIII. Terrorism is frequently reported during indicated events. International and domestic terrorism activities continue by the aggressor to intimidate the opponent and gain access without the need to finance a war between nations, or within nations. However, war and terrorism appear to be the current approach. The table includes links to the history of individual wars.

Education Research:

TraCCC: Transnational Crime and Corruption Center is the first center in the United States devoted to understanding the links among terrorism, transnational crime and corruption, and to teaching, researching, training and helping to formulate policy on these critical issues. TraCCC is a research center within the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.

NSI: The National Security Institute at George Mason University’s Antonin Scalia Law School

START: Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism website. A Department of Homeland Security Emeritus Center of Excellence led by the University of Maryland.

Norwich University Online: State-of-the-art offerings with a 200-year history of academic excellence and innovation. The nation’s first private college to offer civil engineering instruction to being one of the first institutions to receive designation as an NSA Center of Excellence in Information Security Education,

DEGREE CHOICES: Counterterrorism degrees, programs, and careers.

Posts represent opinions of the editor based solely on available public information.

Notes:

  • Posts are designed to be quick reads and represent the initial cuts on subjects.
  • Textual material consists of modified entries from the linked-to resources.
  • Postings are an index of detailed information accessed by selecting included links.
  • Organizations linked-to maintain ownership and are responsible for accuracy.
  • Posts are based on Horizon / Environmental Scanning futurist research methods.

End of Posting

Financing War and Terrorism

This posting explains how countries hostile to the United States are aided by profitable activities, legal and illegal, to finance war and terrorism against the U.S. and other nations.

$17 trillion trade deficit has been accumulated by the U.S. for the period of 1992-2020. This is an outflow of wealth that has helped support growth of foreign nations conducting war and terrorist activities, building their cities and infrastructure, and growing their militaries.

In addition to the $17 trillion legal transfer of wealth as a function of unbalanced trade, other forms of wealth transfer occur daily through illegal activities.

The World Factbook: Terrorist groups designated by the US State Department as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), as well as non-designated, self-proclaimed branches and affiliates of the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS) FTO. Entries include references to financial support.

9-11 Executive Summary: After the September 11 attacks, the highest-level U.S. government officials publicly declared that the fight against al Qaeda financing was as critical as the fight against al Qaeda itself. (National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States).

Chapter 4, Staff Statements: Combatting Terrorist Financing in the United States: (The Role of Financial Institutions). Several methods of financing are mentioned. Donations to reputable entities such as legal international welfare organizations. Money laundering by transferring income from illegal activities which cannot be monitored through international banking, and then supporting terrorist activities, or moved into legal activities which can be monitored.

United Nations: Countering the financing of terrorism. In order to be effective, efforts to counter the financing of terrorism need to rely more on financial intelligence sharing between countries and enhanced coordination between the public and private sector.

CFT Program: Global effort on on detecting, preventing and countering the financing of terrorism. Launched in 2020 to step up UNOCT and UNCCT efforts in this area as mandated by the General Assembly’s Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy and its review resolutions, and the Security Council.

Global Issues: List of global issues that can provide terrorism financing include tax havens, offshore financial system, citizenship by investment, secrecy jurisdictions, free trade zones, anonymous companies and how they work.

Narcotics: Illegal drug trade or drug trafficking is a global black market dedicated to the cultivation, manufacture, distribution and sale of prohibited drugs. How $1 trillion in dirty money leaves poor countries each year has helped get financial transparency onto the agenda of world leaders.

Global Financial Integrity finds that globally, the business of transnational crime is valued at an average of $1.6 trillion to $2.2 trillion annually. The study evaluates the overall size of criminal markets in 11 categories: trafficking of drugs, arms, human trafficking, organ harvesting, biological terror, cultural property, counterfeiting, illegal wildlife crime, illegal fishing, illegal logging, illegal mining, and crude oil theft.

World Economic Forum: Global conflict costs. There were 278 political conflicts in 2006. Ten years later, the number of political conflicts had risen sharply to 402. Total estimated cost Jan 15, 2018 was $14 trillion per year and rising.

UNDOC: Global drug use alone killed almost half a million people in 2019, while drug use disorders resulted in 18 million years of healthy life lost, mostly due to opioids.

CDC: U.S. Overdose deaths in 2021 increased half as much as 2020 – to nearly 93,655 deaths. The searchable tables indicate drug overdose deaths are up 15% annually by drug or class Jan 2015-2022.

Theft of national secrets by internal and external entities. Scientist resigned from the Oklahoma petroleum company where he worked at for 18 months. He planned to return to China and also reported that he hadn’t arranged his next job, so the company agreed to let him to stay in his role until his departure date in December 2018. Then came the billion-dollar stolen secret surprise.

Market Realist: Money laundering and terrorist financing in casinos. Transactions associated with terrorism financing may be conducted in very small amounts. Funds that are generated from legal sources make it even more difficult to determine if they could be used for terrorist purposes. Casino.org

Posts represent opinions of the editor based solely on available public information.

Notes:

  • Posts are designed to be quick reads and represent the initial cuts on subjects.
  • Textual material consists of modified entries from the linked-to resources.
  • Postings are an index of detailed information accessed by selecting included links.
  • Organizations linked-to maintain ownership and are responsible for accuracy.
  • Posts are based on Horizon / Environmental Scanning futurist research methods.

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Students Become Terrorists

There are times, when to maintain a neutral mindset during research, breaks are necessary for self-introspection. During twenty-eight years’ experience in military aviation, and twenty years in higher education, the main lesson learned is that observable problems are not the problem. They are the effect for which there are causes.

Students becoming terrorists have causes:

The above list does not address all the causes however, they are the main topics.

Student learning environments have become more unsafe places recently, requiring institution of preventive measures. This very fact causes students to feel unsafe and obviously impacts the effectiveness of teaching and learning.

The U.S. Department of Education: Administers multiple federal programs designed to improve school safety, address critical areas of need for improving the conditions for learning and school climate, and to improve access to systems of support for schools, such as mental health services, trauma, violence prevention, social emotional and behavioral learning, school climate, and school emergency management planning.

Primary School: Attacks that have occurred on school property or related primarily to school issues or events.

Secondary School: Attacks that have occurred on school property or related primarily to school issues or events.

Post-Secondary School: Attacks related to postsecondary schools, such as universities or colleges. These are attacks that occurred on school property, faculty or related primarily to school issues or events.

Education Week: Shadowy criminal gangs with sinister names like The Dark Overlord are terrorizing schools. They hack into district networks and then demand hundreds of thousands of dollars in ransom payments, making threats of terrible consequences if schools do not agree to hand over the money.

Very Well Family: Comprehensive Sexuality Education is a program that starts in early childhood and continues through high school. It teaches that sexuality is a natural, normal part of healthy living and brings up age-appropriate sexuality topics.

Critical Race Theory: The Communist Marxist Left built its political program on the theory of class conflict. Critical race theory (CRT) has become a divisive ideology-based on race as a form of class conflict. It pits proponents and opponents against each other.

CRT: Has become a racially charged debate which is a misguided way to examine the inequalities in American society through the lens of racial injustice. Marxist-style revolutions based on race, ended in disaster. Socialist governments in the Soviet Union, China, Cambodia, Cuba, and elsewhere racked up a body count of nearly 100 million of their own people.

National Education Association (NEA): Education is political. When teaching about U.S. elections or politics, many educators will strive for neutrality. They may insist these discussions have no place in the classroom.

NAE: Adopted an agenda item stating, “It is reasonable and appropriate for curriculum to be informed by academic frameworks for understanding and interpreting the impact of the past on current society, including critical race theory.” This is considered a socialist political propaganda approach by some, not neutral.

Political Corruption in the United States: There’s a lot of corruption associated with political machines, particularly though not exclusively in urban areas. The political machines provide jobs for supporters, who use their positions to generate illicit income for themselves and the party bosses.

Public Education is Political: School is a hazardous environment. Poor quality education, unhealthy environments, narcotics easily available, and sex crimes. U.S. schools rank very poorly in international testing with a science and math ranking of 37th while China ranks first. Even in the arts and humanities, U.S. students rank 25th.

National Institute on Drug Abuse: In 2021, provisional data from CDC estimate more than 107,000 people died of a drug overdose, with 75% of those deaths involving an opioid. The overall rise in overdose deaths is largely attributable to the proliferation in the drug supply of illicit fentanyl.

In-School Surveys for Drugs Prevalence trends by drug for 8th, 10th, and 12th Grade Students. People who reported multiple symptoms consistent with severe substance use disorder at age 18 exhibited two or more of these symptoms in adulthood according to a new analysis of a nationwide survey.

Sex Crimes: An analysis found that at least 135 teachers and teachers’ aides have been arrested in 41 states between January 1 and May 13, which works out to about an arrest a day on average. The vast majority of the arrested educators were men.

National Center for Education Statistics: It is apparent the environment and experiences students encounter are not friendly in many instances. In conjunction with the internal environment on campus, there is the external environment off campus.  Annual Reports . and Information Staff.

Research.com: Forty (40) Student crime statistics for 2021/2022, analysis and predictions. Reported incidents of violence in schools over the past few years have left parents, students, and even educators to question how safe campuses really are.

The Squad: Four members of Congress representing themselves as progressive women of color may have much in common with student protestors. They may be the image that student protesters emulate, however, in a violent way.

Student Protests: Theft, robbery, rape, carjacking, arson, gang activity, use and sale of drugs and many more activities, may be a response to the perceived and real environment. The negative issues addressed above are abnormal in an advanced, enlightened society.

COVID-19: Education, the lingering effects of unfinished learning. U.S. states and districts have the opportunity to not only help students catch up on unfinished learning from the pandemic but also tackle long-standing historical inequities in education.

American Psychological Association:  Students and others who are more open to terrorist recruitment and radicalization tend to:

  • Feel angry, alienated or disenfranchised.
  • Believe that their current political involvement does not give them the power to effect real change.
  • Identify with perceived victims of the social injustice they are fighting.
  • Feel the need to take action rather than just talking about the problem.
  • Believe that engaging in violence against the state is not immoral.
  • Have friends or family sympathetic to the cause.
  • Believe that joining a movement offers social and psychological rewards such as adventure, camaraderie and a heightened sense of identity.

Terrorism and Schools: As terrorism evolves and as more youth embrace extremist ideologies, there is a growing need to include processes to assess, prepare, protect, mitigate, respond, and ultimately recover from terrorism-motivated incidents within district and school safety plans.

On a good note:

American Heart Association: The House Education and Labor Committee approved the Healthy Meals, Healthy Kids Act, which would reauthorize federal child nutrition programs and help guarantee that kids are not only fed but have access to the healthy meals they need to learn. The American Heart Association, the world’s leading voluntary organization focused on heart and brain health.

Notes:

  • Posts are designed to be quick reads and represent the initial cuts on subjects.
  • Textual material consists of modified entries from the linked-to resources.
  • Postings are an index of detailed information accessed by selecting included links.
  • Organizations linked-to maintain ownership and are responsible for accuracy.
  • Posts are based on Horizon / Environmental Scanning futurist research methods.

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Future Forecast Background: 2022-2028

Forward: Future Forecast for the period of 2022-2028 will include outcomes of this review and update of parts of the 2017-2021 SOTU.

This includes observing actions of government, business, education, and international relationships over the past fifty (50) years. Additions to the review are Status of the U.S. Economy, International Cyber Security, and the “irag.blog” Summary on War and Terrorism.

Section I: Arrogant ignorance is reflected by national, state and city governments. Moving forward, this period is heavily influenced by malfeasance by public officials. Daily, public media reports are published consisting of deceit, deception, duplicity, lying, fraud and more.

Observation and data identified and linked-to in this review indicate the coming period of history from 2022-2028 is on a fast-track to national hazards and international conflict on a major scale.

The record is clear. The following situation could only be wished for by the Mafia. It’s as if the old Chicago Mob of the last century is running the country.

Question: “Does Communist influence exist in the United States Government?”

Observations: Frequently, actions and statements by the administration and members of congress appear to be misleading. What is said, is not what is done. There seems to be a form of intellectual subversion extended in the media, attempting to evade a true understanding by the general public and voter.

The result of deviating from solid principles of the past, provide activists the ability to express deviant behavior. However, as the saying goes, “be careful what you ask for, you may get it” and it will not be what was expected.

The current administration and congress have failed to protect the country from invasion by a “Trojan Horse of Troy.” Wholesale infiltration by an army of aliens of military age.

Prosecutors are failing to protect the community by operating the legal system as a turnstile at a train station . . . in and out to commit more criminal acts at will, from minor to major. Ransacking stores, raiding railroad cars, carjacking, assault, bank robberies, and worse – with a get out of jail card upon arrest.

Throwing the election system out the window saying it is prejudice when it requires personal identification. Who doesn’t have identification? Where is the person without a job, or collecting welfare, either of which require personal identification?  

Opening the border to allow free movement of drugs which are destroying communities and leading to higher levels of crime.

Washington is turning the United States into a satellite of Communist China.  

Reference: Socialist politicians function as Communists inside the government, serving without suspicion, that their actions are equivalent to that of communist spies, believers, and sympathizers. They influence decisions and actions by business, government and education in favor of communist governments.

History of the preceding century is important in identifying significant patterns of activity which influence the decision-making process and establishing benchmarks for this forecast. The natural state of nature for nations, as recorded in history, is cyclical internal and external conflict, with the objective of survival and expansion. The frequency of cycles is influenced by advancements in science, movement, and communications technologies.

Notes:

  1. This study in preparation for the 2022-2028 forecast is written to be informative for all readers. It is supported by references to media, research, and verifiable data references.
  2. Images and narratives in this posting reflect the underlying references. Links to the references will provide significant in-depth information with more accompanying images and tables, some interactive for exploration.
  3. It is customary for education, government, industry, and international perspectives to vary on interpretations of the data based on their interests.
  4. Readers should familiarize themselves with postings under the “research” category in conjunction with this forecast. It is important to remember that the content of the forecast is based on observations and data, not opinions.
  5. ALL LINKS open a separate page. CLOSE the newly opened page to return to this posting.

Section II: Economics is a failed science.

The quantity of every product or service that is made, shipped, sold, and serviced is forecast and controlled by economic predictions.

Economic science fails because the pursuit of least cost per unit of items produced does not consider the costs to society by their actions. The assumption that least cost results in the best decision is an error in logic. Economic decisions to purchase where costs are lowest does not take into consideration the cost of lost jobs, factories, degraded infrastructure and more, as a result of unbalanced trade. The accumulated trade deficit from imports for the period of 1992-2021 exceeds 17 trillion dollars.

Failure to consider taxes in the form of personal and business taxes paid by employees and businesses for domestic production may lower import prices of goods and services. However, the cost to renew infrastructure, pay unemployment and all other benefits, requires borrowing and increasing the national debt. Current interest payments on the national debt exceeds the total cost of K-12 education for the entire nation.

Data Lab: USA Government Finance Guide. Visualizations to help you understand government finance. The Resource Menu Includes an Analyst’s Guide and Student Innovator’s Toolbox for instructors and students.

Tables and links to references demonstrate a declining abiltiy to remain self sustainable. Deficits appear to be programmed to remain at 2 Trillion annually, and possibly increase at an increasing rate.

SOTU: 2017 BACKDROP SUMMARY UPDATE

This is an update to the Original 2017 SOTU SUMMARY and covers the period of 2017-2021. In conjunction with other cited references, it serves as the basis for the Future Forecast 2022-2028.

Note: all links open a new page. To return to this summary, just close the opened page.

New additions: Status of the U.S. Economy, and International Cyber Security.

Status of the U.S. Economy:

Observation of issues from a high level indicates conflicts regarding the economy are political. The U.S. is a great country in most respects, however, there seems to be a disconnect between idealism and reality.

Idealism produces an endless array of social programs for which, politicians believe, there is sufficient funding. This is a myth as the deficit now represents five years of federal revenue from taxes, etc. The reality is there has been a growing federal deficit since 1992.

Imports vs Exports & Trade Deficit indicate the total trade deficit for the period 1992-2021 is 17 trillion, 132 billion, 255 million. That is 815,820,238,095 on an annual basis.

Annual interest payments on the national debt now exceeds $550,000,000,000, nearly the total cost of education for K-12 schools, or the Department of Defense budget.

What does the future hold? Possibly a reduction in social programs as the national deficit grows. Social programs, healthcare and more will suffer lower and discontinuing services.

The real data shows the U.S. is well on the way to bankruptcy. Annual revenue vs programmed expenditures indicates a significant departure from fiscal responsibility.

The point being, that occasionally organizations and society become so engrossed in the detail, that they miss the overall picture and can’t see the forest for the trees.

Most of the trade deficit is a result of unbalanced trade with Asia, mainly China.

Refer to the posting on Status of the U.S. Economy.

International Cyber Security:

The education service industry is indeed global, and possibly covers every continent and culture. Networks of agreements exist between global universities  and employers.

Universities worldwide are developing large-scale interconnected campuses that resemble towns and factories. Examples of large-scale campuses are IIT Bombay, India, the National University of Singapore, and the Suzhou Dushu Lake Higher Education Town of the Peoples Republic of China, all interconnected.

Internationally, coursework outside the degree program is limited. As a result, more time and depth of study is provided allowing students to focus more on how-to-do-it. U.S. colleges and universities require, on average, one to one and a half years of study outside technical degrees of study.

Therefore, in many ways, U.S. students are not competitive. Many large companies in the U.S. are headed by graduates from foreign degree programs.

Hardware and software companies provide international academic organizations with products to practice-on and make engineering changes-to under contract.

DEF CON Workshops are provided by organizations that teach participants how to secure, or hack through the cyber security of sites to access or change content.

Computer systems located in China and North Korea routinely crawl the worldwide web, hacking into U.S. banks and companies to access funds and trade secrets.

Refer to the posting on International Cyber Security.

SOTU 2017 Upadates:

Oath of Office:

Ben’s Guide: Known as a swearing-in ceremony. The official reciting the oath swears an allegiance to uphold the Constitution.

The Constitution only specifies an oath of office for the President; however, Article VI of the Constitution states that other officials, including members of Congress, “shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation to support this constitution.”

U.S. Students Achievement Level:

U.S. students’ math skills have remained stagnant for decades. This means they are falling behind many other countries, and scores are now below the global average.

Students placed 11th out of 79 countries in science and 30th in math. When analyzing the U.S. results over the years, there has not been any improvement in math since 2003, and no improvement in science since 2006.

Micro-communities within host nation borders: 

ADWEEK: Announcement of the upcoming #SMWLDN on Nov. 2 – 4, 2021 provides an insight into reimagining social media marketing for a better tomorrow.

Forbes: article on The How And Why Of Building Micro-Communities On Social Media.

Immigration into the U.S.

Pew Research Center: The United States has more immigrants than any other country in the world. The U.S. and World Population Clock.

Today, more than 40 million people living in the U.S. were born in another country, accounting for about one-fifth of the world’s migrants.

Unskilled job market shrinking:

MIT: Study finds job-replacing tech has directly driven the income gap and loss of jobs for the unskilled continues.

Within industries adopting automation, the study shows, the average “displacement” (or job loss) from 1987-2016, displacement was 16 percent, while reinstatement was just 10 percent.

In short, those factory positions or phone-answering jobs are not coming back.

Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a variety of news releases and publications on economic data. BLS employs many surveys and statistical methods developed and refined over the course of the year. This is an excellent source to use for original research data. Strategic Plan, FY 2020-2025.

However, keep in mind that data is frequently updated during the year. Always recheck the source for changes.

Free money for all: 

AP News: In experiments across the country, dozens of cities and counties — some using money from the $1.9 trillion COVID relief package approved in March.

Proposed levels of payment are $500 to $1,000 each month to do with as they please and tracking what happens.

United States Census Bureau: Income and poverty in the United States: 2020 – Current population reports.

Employment and Underemployment:

The nation’s workforce, including employment and unemployment levels, as well as weeks and hours worked.

Data collection also includes occupation, industry, and class of worker (e.g., self-employed, working for a private firm, or working for a government agency) in the American labor force.

Included are behavior and estimates of home-based work.

U.S. contribution to the U.N.

COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: The United States remains the largest donor to the United Nations, contributing roughly $11 billion in 2019, which accounted for just under one-fifth of funding for the body’s collective budget.

Included are the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and the World Food Program (WFP).

Government Accountability Office:

GAO@100: A century of GAO activities in non-partisan fact-based work. The presentation is a modern web design with a graphic presentation of areas of interest.

Included are current trends in Artificial Intelligence (AI) Automation and the Internet of Things, Blockchain & Distributed Technologies, climate, health, and weapons, and more.

Cost of Violence as Percent of World GDP: 

VISION OF HUMANITY:  The economic impact of violence improved by 0.2 percent from 2018 to 2019. The biggest improvement was in armed conflict, which decreased by 29 percent to $521 billion.

In the ten countries most affected by violence, the average economic impact of violence was equivalent to 41 per cent of GDP.

Cost of lobbying exceeds $3 billion annually and over 12,000 lobbyists:

Open Secrets: The combined organization, OpenSecrets, merges the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP) and the National Institute on Money in Politics (NIMP).

The total cost of lobbying, and the number of lobbyists continues to increase.

New World Order: 

The Atlantic: In 2016, Australia struck a deal with France to buy a fleet of diesel-powered submarines.

Australians will scrap their agreement with France and team up with Britain and the U.S. instead, forming a new “AUKUS” military alliance in the process.

Healthcare Swindle:

Alliance for Natural Health: It’s no mystery that American health care is a crony mess.

In many ways, this is because health care is treated differently than almost every other service.

$10 for an aspirin; $300 for a single X-ray; $8,000 for an emergency room visit.

World economic situation: 

United Nations: Global manufacturing-dependent economies are faring better, both during the crisis and the recovery period. Trade-in services, in particular tourism, will remain depressed amid the slow lifting of restrictions on international travel and fear of new waves of infection in many developing countries.

According to the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) mid-2021 report, following a sharp contraction of 3.6 percent in 2020, the global economy is now projected to expand by 5.4 percent in 2021,

Marijuana Trends Among 8th, 10th, and 12th Grades:

Monitoring the Future: Daily marijuana prevalence rose in all three grades in 2019, significantly so in the lower two grades, with a further increase in 2020.

It is noteworthy that among 8th graders, it showed little change between 1996 and 2019.

In 2020, in all three grades, daily marijuana levels were at or near the highest level recorded since 1991 (1.1%, 4.4%, and 6.9%). Refer to page 14.

U.S. $42 Trillion GDP loss: 

AP NEWS: US Economy grows 6.4% in Q1, and it’s likely just the start. The economy may have grown 6.4%, but from what baseline? Additionally, the U.S. GDP loss increased significantly.

Applying the 250% formula as depicted in New Rules, the cumulative GDP loss since 1992 is $42 Trillion.

Harvard: U.S. Competitiveness: A Recovery Squandered. Structural failures in the U.S. political system continue to prevent meaningful progress on actions needed to improve U.S. competitiveness.

Drug and Alcohol Use Among College Students:

Addiction Center: College students make up one of the largest groups of drug abusers nationwide. Starting out in college produces some natural social anxiety for many students.

As students are facing the high demands of coursework, part-time jobs, internships, social obligations, and more, many turn to drugs as a way to cope.

Alcohol is involved in the vast majority of substance-related problems on college campuses. Because drinking is often socially acceptable.

Political gridlock: 

FiveThirtyEight: How much longer can this era of political gridlock last?

Divided government is probably imminent, and the electoral pattern we’ve become all too familiar with — a pendulum swinging back and forth between unified control of government and divided government.

New Jobs are STEM:

Pew Research Center: The STEM workforce (science, technology, engineering, and math) has grown rapidly in recent decades.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics identifies projects for strong growth, many are STEM. Increasing diversity in the STEM workforce is closely tied to the educational system.

Fiscal outlook and debt:

Congressional Budget Office: CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $2.3 trillion in 2021, nearly $900 billion less than the shortfall recorded in 2020.

At 10.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit in 2021 would be the second-largest since 1945.

Federal debt is held by the public—which stood at 100 percent of GDP at the end of the fiscal year 2020.

Charter Schools:

EducationWeek: A charter school is a tuition-free school of choice that is publicly funded but independently run.

Conceived over 25 years ago in Minnesota as a means to loosen red tape around public schools and free up educators to innovate, charters have since grown into a national movement that spans 44 states plus the District of Columbia and includes around 7,000 schools and 3 million students.

Status of the U.S. Economy

Economic models used, and predictions derived from them, tend to have a narrow and shallow understanding. There are thousands of economists at work predicting current and future outcomes. Unfortunately, however complex the models are, the capability of providing accurate outcomes is in question. Currently the economy is in a recessionary state, and applying this narrow and shallow approach will always be behind the real world outcomes. As the saying goes, “they are playing inside the sandbox, and oblivious to their surroundings.”

Decisions made always have a future outcome, not always knowable in advance. However, failing to attempt or predict and monitor outcomes for revision, will usually produce an undesirable outcome. In the case of trade deficits, they are reported and knowable. The 17+ Trillion trade deficit is funding provided to other trading partners in pursuit of their growth objectives at the the expense of U.S. futures.

Prior to 1998, trade deficits were manageable. Over the period from 1998 and 2022, imports have resulted in increasing loss of real income and degradation of the U.S. infrastructure. Today, the suggested method of improving the infrastructure is to borrow. Prior the this time taxes and fees from production paid for these items.

Additionally, the trade deficit can be used by trading partners to build their infrastructure, military, shipping, and buy other assets. China has routinely purchased raw materials resources previously used by the U.S. when manufacturing was performed in the U.S. China has also made agreements with countries such as Italy and Spain to secure shipping ports.

The data below indicate much of the 30+Trillion in deficit is, in fact, an outcome of taking a global perspective, where China and other countries have not reciprocated. A case could be made the U.S. is funding Chinese and Russian aggression.

Recession seems to be a long-term prediction. With the possibility of international conflict, shortages will more likely occur than not. Plan for depression.

United States Census Bureau Provides data for Imports vs Exports and resulting trade deficit for the period of 1992 – July 2001. All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

This is an update of the New Rules: U.S. Economy and International Trade posting, which states that the Most Favored Nation (MFN) status was given to China by Congress in 1992. Refer to that posting for a background discussion.

The chart indicates that before 1992, the trade deficit was relatively minor. Since 1992, the overall trade deficit has continued to grow. Reviewing data provided by the United States Census Bureau indicates the majority of the U.S. trade deficit is with Asia, mainly China.

The total trade deficit for the period 1992-2021* is 17 trillion, 132 billion, 255 million.

The World Trade Organization (WTO), established in 1995, has the objective of facilitating international trade.

Several articles and research papers have been written on open free trade. Review the CATO INSTITUTE for background issues that impact global trade.

U.S. GDP Growth Rate data for 1992 – 2020

<a href='https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-gross-domestic-product'>U.S. GDP 1960-2021</a>. www.macrotrends.net. Retrieved 2021-09-27.

macrotrends website provides U.S. GDP Growth Rate data for 1992 – 2020.

The question frequently asked, “what is the ideal growth rate?” A healthy rate keeps the economy in an expansion phase of the business cycle. U.S. GDP growth rate for the period is 2.38%, within the desired rate of 2% and 3%.

Factors included in determining the quarterly GDP are published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP reflects data internal to a specific economy. Economists use varying definitions and formulas for determining GDP.

As data presentations, the chart and tables are interesting and provide some limited information regarding the health of the U.S. economy. However, are not sufficient to evaluate, understand and make predictions on the future.

The American Presidency Project  website contains Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays 1930 – 2020 with estimates to 2026.

The website contains a Presidential Documents Archive with collections of public messages, statements, speeches, news conference remarks, documents such as Proclamations, and Executive Orders.

Growth in deficit spending began in 2009 following the 2008 market slump. Future deficits over $2,000,000,000,000 may be an annual occurrence.

Annual Interest payment on the national debt exceeds $550,000,000,000, nearly the total cost of education for K-12 schools, or the Department of Defense budget.

Annual borrowing is required to fund the difference between federal tax revenue and expenditures.

Summary:

Horizon scanning is the observation of issues from a high level and is frequently referred to as viewing activity from 40,000 feet (eight miles up). The point being, that occasionally organizations and society become so engrossed in the detail, that they miss the overall picture and can’t see the forest for the trees.

Data identified in the figure and table for Imports vs Exports & Trade Deficit indicate the total trade deficit for the period 1992-2021* is 17 trillion, 132 billion, 255 million. That is 815,820,238,095 on an annual basis.

Information in this posting will be addressed in the SOTU: BACKDROP SUMMARY for 2021-2028.

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